Liverpool land in unexpected position in Champions League forecast

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When will Arne Slot host his first Premier League press conference?
When will Arne Slot host his first Premier League press conference?

The Champions League returns on September 16, and fresh predictions have left Liverpool fans stunned by what the numbers say this season.

European nights are set to return, with the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League promising another campaign of high drama.

The new format, which came into effect last year, continues unchanged: 36 clubs in one massive league stage, each side playing eight matches.

Goals flowed in last season’s edition, and the spectacle is expected to only grow louder this time.

England’s presence is stronger than ever, with six clubs in the mix – Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur, and Liverpool.

Among them, all eyes naturally drift towards Anfield, where Arne Slot enters his second season in charge.

After the turbulence of recent years, Liverpool returns to the continent with a fresh identity, plenty of momentum, and a burning desire to reclaim their place at the summit of Europe.

Liverpool opens their Champions League campaign with a group stage clash against Atlético Madrid on September 18 at 12:30 AM IST.

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Opta’s numbers put Liverpool under the spotlight

Liverpool Champions League prediction
Credit – Sky Sports (via Opta)

Yet, beyond the anticipation on the pitch, it’s the numbers off it that have set tongues wagging.

Opta’s supercomputer, after running 10,000 simulations of the new season, delivered results that placed Liverpool in a spotlight few expected.

The Reds, fresh off their domestic triumph, are predicted to hold a 20.4% chance of winning the Champions League — a figure that puts them ahead of Europe’s giants.

Arsenal follow closely behind at 16%, while defending champions Paris Saint-Germain are given a 12.1% chance to retain their crown.

Barcelona and Manchester City each sit at 8.4%, while Chelsea (7%), Real Madrid (5.8%), and Bayern Munich (4.3%) form the chasing pack.

For Liverpool, the numbers are more than just statistics. They represent a recognition of both their recent resurgence and their historical stature in the competition.

With six titles already in the cabinet and a squad hungry for continental success under new leadership, Anfield once again carries the weight of expectation — and this time, the numbers suggest it may be justified.

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