Liverpool’s journey in the Champions League has taken an interesting turn after finishing at the top of the table, despite a 3-2 defeat to PSV Eindhoven.
Their position secured them a relatively smooth draw for the knockout rounds, with potential heavyweight clashes only emerging in the semi-finals.
Arne Slot’s side is set to face either Paris Saint-Germain, Benfica, Monaco, or Brest in the last 16. On paper, this appears to be a manageable challenge for Liverpool. While PSG represents a significant threat, the other three teams have historically struggled against elite opposition in Europe.
Also Read: Arne Slot sends strong message to Saudi Arabia over Mo Salah’s future!
Mathematically speaking, assuming each of these teams has an equal probability of facing Liverpool, there is a 75% chance that the Reds avoid PSG and instead get a more favorable matchup.
Additionally, Liverpool will enjoy home advantage in the second leg of the last 16, a crucial factor. Over the past five years, 67% of teams playing the second league at home in the Champions League last-16 have progressed to the next round.
Liverpool’s Champions League route: A favorable path to the final?
If Liverpool progress, they will face either Lille/Aston Villa, Atalanta/Borussia Dortmund, or Sporting CP/Club Brugge in the quarter-finals. Atalanta, who knocked Liverpool out of the Europa League last season with a shocking 3-0 win at Anfield, are the team to watch.
Based on UEFA coefficient rankings and current form, Aston Villa and Borussia Dortmund present the biggest obstacles in this round. However, with a quarter-final win rate of 71% in the last decade, Liverpool will fancy their chances.
The official road to Munch 2025 Champions League final.
— Anything Liverpool (@AnythingLFC_) January 31, 2025
What do you think reds?👀🔴 pic.twitter.com/Rmb01fSU0l
Liverpool cannot face the likes of Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Manchester City, or Inter Milan until the semi-finals. Out of the 13 teams Liverpool won’t face until the semis, 12 are stacked in one bracket—plus Barcelona, chilling on the other side after finishing second.
The only way they’ll meet?
Under the bright lights of the final!
This significantly increases their probability of reaching the last four. Historically, Liverpool have reached the semi-finals in four of their last six UCL campaigns when avoiding major teams early.
Key Dates to Watch
- Last 16: March 4/5 & 11/12
- Quarter-finals: April 8/9 & 15/16
- Semi-finals: April 29/30 & May 6/7
- Final: May 31 (Munich)
With the odds in their favor and a well-structured path ahead, Liverpool fans can dream of another European final—but football, as always, is unpredictable.
Also Read: Liverpool’s £130M Champions League jackpot: Will FSG finally splash the cash?
Author
-
Passionate about the beautiful game and dedicated to Liverpool FC, where "You'll Never Walk Alone" is not just a slogan, but a way of life. I live and breathe football, from the roar of the Anfield crowd to the tactical intricacies of the sport. My expertise lies in dissecting the transfer market, tracking player movements, and uncovering the hidden gems destined for greatness. Whether it's discussing potential signings, analyzing match strategies, or celebrating the brilliance of players, I'm always ready for a football conversation.